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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Carolina Panthers 4th & 1 at the 66

Carolina Panthers 14 – Dallas Cowboys 36

What Actually Happened

(12:48) 32-R.Freeman right guard to CAR 36 for 2 yards (26-J.Lewis).

The Three Options

GO -0.12 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.26 EP
  • 28% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 66, worth -3.76 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (83 yards).

PUNT -1.29 EP
  • Dallas Cowboys would take over around their own 24, worth -1.29 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model