Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Carolina Panthers 4th & 14 at the 84

Carolina Panthers 0 – Dallas Cowboys 0

What Actually Happened

(12:15) 3-J.Charlton punts 49 yards to DAL 35, Center-44-J.Jansen, fair catch by 88-C.Lamb. PENALTY on DAL-29-C.Goodwin, Defensive Offside, 5 yards, enforced at DAL 35.

The Three Options

GO -3.15 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +0.98 EP
68% chance to fail: Dallas Cowboys takes over around their own 84, worth -5.13 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (101 yards).

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model