Win Probability
Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Key Insights
- Ryan Fitzpatrick (WAS): +0.107 EPA/dropback in prior starts
- LAC crossing 3 time zone(s)
Predicted Final Score
Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.
Injury Report — Week 1
LAC
WAS
No players on the report.
Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.
Actual Result
Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 12 pts on total.
Scoring Summary
- Q1 09:18 TD LAC (9:18) (Shotgun) 30-A.Ekeler left tackle for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 6 – WAS 0
- Q1 03:00 FG WAS (3:00) 3-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. LAC 7 – WAS 3
- Q2 13:40 FG WAS (13:40) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. LAC 7 – WAS 6
- Q2 09:09 FG LAC (9:09) 16-T.Vizcaino 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 10 – WAS 6
- Q2 00:48 FG LAC (:48) 16-T.Vizcaino 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long. LAC 13 – WAS 6
- Q2 00:05 FG WAS (:05) 3-D.Hopkins 48 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way. LAC 13 – WAS 9
- Q3 11:26 TD WAS (11:26) (Shotgun) 4-T.Heinicke pass short left to 82-L.Thomas for 11 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 13 – WAS 15
- Q4 11:25 TD LAC (11:25) (Shotgun) 10-J.Herbert pass short left to 81-M.Williams for 3 yards, TOUCHDOWN. LAC 19 – WAS 16
Fourth-Down Decisions
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Q1 WAS 4th & 4 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 50%
(7:44) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to LAC 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 7 at the 85Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(6:17) 1-T.Long punts 47 yards to WAS 38, Center-54-M.Overton. 1-D.Carter to LAC 48 for 14 yards (52-K.Fackrell; 32-A.Gilman).
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Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 12Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 39% p(FG) 96%
(3:00) 3-D.Hopkins 30 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q1 LAC 4th & 6 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43%
(1:36) 1-T.Long punts 47 yards to WAS 21, Center-54-M.Overton. 1-D.Carter to WAS 29 for 8 yards (49-D.Tranquill; 82-S.Anderson).
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Q2 WAS 4th & 13 at the 25Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 26% p(FG) 86%
(13:40) 3-D.Hopkins 43 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q2 LAC 4th & 4 at the 15Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 43% p(FG) 95%
(9:09) 16-T.Vizcaino 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.
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Q2 WAS 4th & 10 at the 68Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 35%
(8:48) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to LAC 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 84-K.Hill to LAC 26 for 3 yards (51-D.Mayo).
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Q2 LAC 4th & 9 at the 9Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 97%
(:48) 16-T.Vizcaino 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.
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Q3 WAS 4th & 1 at the 36Chose GO ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 68% p(FG) 66%
(2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson left guard to LAC 31 for 5 yards (95-C.Covington).
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Q4 WAS 4th & 12 at the 33Chose KICK ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 28% p(FG) 72%
(14:20) 3-D.Hopkins 51 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, Holder-5-T.Way.
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Q4 WAS 4th & 12 at the 45Chose PUNT ✓ matched the modelp(convert) 30% p(FG) 43%
(6:50) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to LAC 8, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 84-K.Hill. PENALTY on WAS-54-C.Cheeseman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 8.