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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 4 at the 15

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(9:09) 16-T.Vizcaino 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.67 EP
Model's Pick
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +4.92 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.78 EP
KICK +1.46 EP
What Happened
  • 95% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.63 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -1.40 EP
PUNT -0.45 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.45 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model