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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 10 at the 68

Washington Commanders 6 – Los Angeles Chargers 10

What Actually Happened

(8:48) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to LAC 23, Center-54-C.Cheeseman. 84-K.Hill to LAC 26 for 3 yards (51-D.Mayo).

The Three Options

GO -1.65 EP
  • 35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 58, worth +2.34 EP
  • 65% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.79 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.14 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -1.14 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model