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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 4 at the 68

Washington Commanders 0 – Los Angeles Chargers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:44) 5-T.Way punts 56 yards to LAC 12, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -0.77 EP
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.21 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 68, worth -3.73 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -0.54 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 26, worth -0.54 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model