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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 9 at the 9

Los Angeles Chargers 10 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(:48) 16-T.Vizcaino 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-54-M.Overton, Holder-1-T.Long.

The Three Options

GO +1.93 EP
  • 30% chance to convert, and it's a touchdown from here: worth +6.34 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 9, worth +0.06 EP
KICK +2.31 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 97% chance to make a 26-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.40 EP
  • 3% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 21, worth -0.46 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model