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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 36

Washington Commanders 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 13

What Actually Happened

(2:39) (No Huddle, Shotgun) 24-A.Gibson left guard to LAC 31 for 5 yards (95-C.Covington).

The Three Options

GO +1.95 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.67 EP
  • 32% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 36, worth -1.78 EP
KICK +0.56 EP
  • 66% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 34% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 46, worth -2.52 EP
PUNT +0.05 EP
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 11, worth +0.05 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model