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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 45

Washington Commanders 16 – Los Angeles Chargers 20

What Actually Happened

(6:50) 5-T.Way punts 37 yards to LAC 8, Center-54-C.Cheeseman, fair catch by 84-K.Hill. PENALTY on WAS-54-C.Cheeseman, Offensive Holding, 10 yards, enforced at LAC 8.

The Three Options

GO -0.46 EP
Model's Pick
  • 30% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 33, worth +3.65 EP
  • 70% chance to fail: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 45, worth -2.18 EP
KICK -0.71 EP
  • 43% chance to make a 62-yard field goal: 3 points, then Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.73 EP
  • 57% chance to miss: Los Angeles Chargers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.53 EP
PUNT -0.59 EP
What Happened
  • Los Angeles Chargers would take over around their own 12, worth -0.59 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model