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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Los Angeles Chargers 4th & 6 at the 68

Los Angeles Chargers 7 – Washington Commanders 3

What Actually Happened

(1:36) 1-T.Long punts 47 yards to WAS 21, Center-54-M.Overton. 1-D.Carter to WAS 29 for 8 yards (49-D.Tranquill; 82-S.Anderson).

The Three Options

GO -1.53 EP
  • 43% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 62, worth +1.74 EP
  • 57% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 68, worth -4.01 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

PUNT -1.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 26, worth -1.35 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model