4th & Data
EN ES
← Home
BAL Away

Baltimore Ravens

HC John Harbaugh
@
LV Home

Las Vegas Raiders

HC Jon Gruden
Monday 2021-09-13 · 20:15 Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas US 🏟 Dome Spread -3.0 O/U 50.5

Win Probability

BAL
38.3%
LV
61.7%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • Derek Carr (LV): +0.203 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • BAL crossing 3 time zone(s)

Predicted Final Score

BAL 24
–
LV 26
Projected margin: LV by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 1

BAL

Derek Wolfe DE Out Back
Daelin Hayes LB Questionable Knee
Jimmy Smith CB Questionable Ankle

LV

Richie Incognito G Out Calf
Roderic Teamer CB Doubtful Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2021 week 1 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BAL 27
–
LV 33

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 10 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 01:54 TD BAL (1:54) (Shotgun) 34-T.Williams up the middle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 6 – LV 0
  • Q2 09:01 TD BAL (9:01) (Shotgun) 8-L.Jackson pass short right to 5-M.Brown for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 13 – LV 0
  • Q2 04:17 TD LV (4:17) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 14 – LV 6
  • Q2 00:02 FG LV (:02) 2-D.Carlson 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. BAL 14 – LV 10
  • Q3 08:29 FG BAL (8:29) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 17 – LV 10
  • Q4 09:24 TD LV (9:24) 28-J.Jacobs right guard for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 17 – LV 16
  • Q4 06:09 TD BAL (6:09) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray up the middle for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 23 – LV 17
  • Q4 03:50 TD LV (3:50) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass short right to 83-D.Waller for 10 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 24 – LV 23
  • Q4 00:42 FG BAL (:42) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch. BAL 27 – LV 24
  • Q4 00:07 FG LV (:07) 2-D.Carlson 55 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-T.Sieg, Holder-6-A.Cole. BAL 27 – LV 27
  • Q5 03:44 TD LV (3:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Carr pass deep right to 7-Z.Jones for 31 yards, TOUCHDOWN. BAL 27 – LV 33

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 19 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 26%

    (5:24) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to LV 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 24 for 3 yards (39-T.Cannon).

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (4:59) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 35 for 22 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski; 24-J.Abram).

  • Q1 BAL 4th & 1 at the 35
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 70%

    (1:54) (Shotgun) 34-T.Williams up the middle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.

  • Q1 LV 4th & 10 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (:19) 6-A.Cole punts 67 yards to BAL 5, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 20 for 15 yards (32-D.Leavitt; 44-N.Kwiatkoski).

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 7 at the 77
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (14:16) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to LV 35, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

  • Q2 BAL 4th & 1 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 68%

    (1:13) (Shotgun) 28-L.Murray left guard to LV 36 for no gain (34-K.Wright).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 6 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (13:19) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to LV 7, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 13 at the 96
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (11:03) 6-A.Cole punts 64 yards to BAL 32, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-D.Duvernay pushed ob at LV 38 for 30 yards (47-T.Sieg).

  • Q3 BAL 4th & 5 at the 22
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 90%

    (8:29) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

  • Q3 LV 4th & 1 at the 13
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 96%

    (3:25) (Shotgun) 28-J.Jacobs up the middle to BAL 13 for no gain (49-C.Board).

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 13 at the 75
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (15:00) 4-S.Koch punts 41 yards to LV 34, Center-46-N.Moore. 13-H.Renfrow pushed ob at LV 41 for 7 yards (57-K.Welch).

  • Q4 LV 4th & 7 at the 56
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (13:31) 6-A.Cole punts 37 yards to BAL 19, Center-47-T.Sieg, fair catch by 13-D.Duvernay.

  • Q4 BAL 4th & 2 at the 29 late-game
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 56% p(FG) 82%

    (:42) 9-J.Tucker 47 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.