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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Baltimore Ravens
4th & 1 at the 35
Baltimore Ravens 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0
What Actually Happened
(1:54) (Shotgun) 34-T.Williams up the middle for 35 yards, TOUCHDOWN.
The Three Options
GO
+1.73 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
-
68% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.46 EP
- 32% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 35, worth -1.98 EP
KICK
+0.41 EP
- 70% chance to make a 52-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.67 EP
- 30% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 45, worth -2.60 EP
PUNT
-0.36 EP
- Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.36 EP
The Verdict
Chose GO
✓ matched the model
