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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 6 at the 56

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(13:19) 4-S.Koch punts 49 yards to LV 7, Center-46-N.Moore, downed by BAL-16-T.Wallace.

The Three Options

GO -0.69 EP
Model's Pick
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 50, worth +2.82 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 56, worth -3.19 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (73 yards).

PUNT -0.96 EP
What Happened
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 17, worth -0.96 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model