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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 5 at the 22

Baltimore Ravens 14 – Las Vegas Raiders 10

What Actually Happened

(8:29) 9-J.Tucker 40 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-46-N.Moore, Holder-4-S.Koch.

The Three Options

GO +1.35 EP
  • 40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 17, worth +4.82 EP
  • 60% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 22, worth -0.99 EP
KICK +1.48 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 90% chance to make a 39-yard field goal: 3 points, then Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.83 EP
  • 10% chance to miss: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 32, worth -1.67 EP
PUNT -0.18 EP
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 11, worth -0.18 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model