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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 7 at the 77

Baltimore Ravens 7 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

What Actually Happened

(14:16) 4-S.Koch punts 42 yards to LV 35, Center-46-N.Moore, fair catch by 13-H.Renfrow.

The Three Options

GO -2.20 EP
  • 42% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.06 EP
  • 58% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 77, worth -4.53 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (94 yards).

PUNT -1.94 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Las Vegas Raiders would take over around their own 34, worth -1.94 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model