Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Baltimore Ravens 4th & 19 at the 68

Baltimore Ravens 0 – Las Vegas Raiders 0

(5:24) 4-S.Koch punts 47 yards to LV 21, Center-46-N.Moore. 13-H.Renfrow to LV 24 for 3 yards (39-T.Cannon).

The Three Options

GO -2.36 EP

26% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 49, worth +2.49 EP
74% chance to fail: Las Vegas Raiders takes over around their own 68, worth -4.04 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (85 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model