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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Las Vegas Raiders 4th & 10 at the 76

Las Vegas Raiders 0 – Baltimore Ravens 0

What Actually Happened

(4:59) 6-A.Cole punts 63 yards to BAL 13, Center-47-T.Sieg. 13-D.Duvernay to BAL 35 for 22 yards (44-N.Kwiatkoski; 24-J.Abram).

The Three Options

GO -2.01 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 66, worth +1.93 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Baltimore Ravens takes over around their own 76, worth -4.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

PUNT -1.27 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Baltimore Ravens would take over around their own 34, worth -1.27 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model