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Buffalo Bills

HC Sean McDermott
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New England Patriots

HC Bill Belichick
Saturday 2019-12-21 · 16:30 Gillette Stadium, Foxborough US ☀️ Clear Spread 7.0 O/U 39.5

Win Probability

BUF
38.6%
NE
61.4%
☀️ Clear

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • NE defense: -0.170 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • BUF defense: -0.155 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (4th in the league)
  • NE offense: -0.053 EPA/play over its last 8 games (22nd in the league)
  • QB edge to BUF: Tom Brady (NE) -0.029 vs Josh Allen (BUF) -0.025 EPA/dropback

Predicted Final Score

BUF 20
–
NE 23
Projected margin: NE by 3 Projected total: 43

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 16

BUF

Ty Nsekhe T Out Ankle
Corey Liuget DT Questionable Knee

NE

Jonathan Jones CB Out Groin
Ja'Whaun Bentley LB Questionable Knee
Jamie Collins LB Questionable Shoulder
Julian Edelman WR Questionable Knee
Jason McCourty CB Questionable Groin

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 16 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

BUF 17
–
NE 24

Prediction missed by 4 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:21 FG BUF (9:21) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez. BUF 3 – NE 0
  • Q1 01:56 TD NE (1:56) 52-E.Roberts reported in as eligible. 12-T.Brady pass short left to 83-M.LaCosse for 8 yards, TOUCHDOWN. NE 12-Brady 539th career TD pass, ties P.Manning for 2nd all-time. NE 12-Brady 76th different career TD target, extends NFL record (Testaverde 70). BUF 3 – NE 6
  • Q2 05:07 FG NE (5:07) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. BUF 3 – NE 10
  • Q2 00:06 TD BUF (:06) 73-D.Dawkins reported in as eligible. 17-J.Allen pass short left to 73-D.Dawkins for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. BUF 9 – NE 10
  • Q3 09:58 FG NE (9:58) 2-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. BUF 10 – NE 13
  • Q3 07:34 TD BUF (7:34) 17-J.Allen pass deep left to 15-J.Brown for 53 yards, TOUCHDOWN [93-L.Guy]. BUF 16 – NE 13
  • Q4 10:48 FG NE (10:48) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey. BUF 17 – NE 16
  • Q4 05:11 TD NE (5:11) 52-E.Roberts reported in as eligible. 34-R.Burkhead right end for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. PENALTY on BUF-97-J.Phillips, Unsportsmanlike Conduct, 15 yards, enforced between downs. BUF 17 – NE 22

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 BUF 4th & 7 at the 17
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 93%

    (9:21) 4-S.Hauschka 35 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-69-R.Ferguson, Holder-9-C.Bojorquez.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 8 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34% p(FG) 38%

    (14:12) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 46 yards to NE 1, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-33-S.Neal.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 27
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 64% p(FG) 83%

    (6:51) 52-E.Roberts reported in as eligible. 26-S.Michel up the middle to BUF 26 for 1 yard (57-L.Alexander, 58-M.Milano). measurement

  • Q2 NE 4th & 2 at the 18
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP
    p(convert) 52% p(FG) 93%

    (5:07) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 6 at the 71
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 41%

    (3:36) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to NE 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-32-S.Perry.

  • Q2 NE 4th & 4 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 46%

    (1:41) 7-J.Bailey punts 40 yards to BUF 23, Center-49-J.Cardona, fair catch by 18-A.Roberts.

  • Q2 BUF 4th & 16 at the 83
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (1:16) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to NE 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-M.Sanu Sr. to 50 for 10 yards (16-R.Foster).

  • Q2 NE 4th & 1 at the 41
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 53%

    (:36) 15-N.Harry left end to BUF 41 for no gain (29-K.Johnson).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 12 at the 54
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (13:19) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 38 yards to NE 16, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-M.Sanu Sr. to NE 23 for 7 yards (29-K.Johnson).

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 33
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 72%

    (9:58) 2-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q3 NE 4th & 8 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35%

    (4:56) 7-J.Bailey punts 53 yards to BUF 10, Center-49-J.Cardona. 18-A.Roberts ran ob at BUF 27 for 17 yards (50-C.Winovich).

  • Q3 BUF 4th & 1 at the 64
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP
    p(convert) 69%

    (2:34) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to NE 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-M.Sanu Sr. to NE 21 for no gain (32-S.Perry, 33-S.Neal).

  • Q4 NE 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.48 EP
    p(convert) 50% p(FG) 98%

    (10:48) 2-N.Folk 20 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28%

    (9:10) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to NE 41, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu Sr..

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 1 at the 30 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 66% p(FG) 78%

    (3:08) (No Huddle) 17-J.Allen left tackle to NE 28 for 2 yards (33-J.Williams). BUF-60-M.Morse was injured during the play.

  • Q4 BUF 4th & 15 at the 15 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.07 EP
    p(convert) 22% p(FG) 94%

    (1:12) (Shotgun) 17-J.Allen pass incomplete short right to 10-C.Beasley (27-J.Jackson) [58-J.Collins Sr.].