Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 6 at the 71

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 10

(3:36) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 57 yards to NE 14, Center-69-R.Ferguson, downed by BUF-32-S.Perry.

The Three Options

GO -1.68 EP

41% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.60 EP
59% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 71, worth -3.97 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (88 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model