Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Buffalo Bills 4th & 15 at the 80

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 16

(9:10) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 39 yards to NE 41, Center-69-R.Ferguson, fair catch by 14-M.Sanu Sr..

The Three Options

GO -2.81 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.53 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 80, worth -4.52 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model