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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Buffalo Bills 4th & 1 at the 64

Buffalo Bills 17 – New England Patriots 13

What Actually Happened

(2:34) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to NE 21, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-M.Sanu Sr. to NE 21 for no gain (32-S.Perry, 33-S.Neal).

The Three Options

GO +0.14 EP
Model's Pick
  • 69% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 63, worth +1.79 EP
  • 31% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 64, worth -3.62 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

PUNT -1.04 EP
What Happened
  • New England Patriots would take over around their own 22, worth -1.04 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.18 EP