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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 1 at the 27

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(6:51) 52-E.Roberts reported in as eligible. 26-S.Michel up the middle to BUF 26 for 1 yard (57-L.Alexander, 58-M.Milano). measurement

The Three Options

GO +2.35 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 64% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 26, worth +4.39 EP
  • 36% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 27, worth -1.35 EP
KICK +1.06 EP
  • 83% chance to make a 44-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.68 EP
  • 17% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 37, worth -1.96 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model