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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 New England Patriots 4th & 2 at the 18

New England Patriots 7 – Buffalo Bills 3

What Actually Happened

(5:07) 2-N.Folk 36 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +2.23 EP
Model's Pick
  • 52% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 16, worth +4.85 EP
  • 48% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 18, worth -0.59 EP
KICK +1.72 EP
What Happened
  • 93% chance to make a 35-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.96 EP
  • 7% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 28, worth -1.27 EP
PUNT -0.28 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth -0.28 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.51 EP