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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 New England Patriots 4th & 8 at the 33

New England Patriots 10 – Buffalo Bills 10

What Actually Happened

(9:58) 2-N.Folk 51 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-49-J.Cardona, Holder-7-J.Bailey.

The Three Options

GO +0.44 EP
  • 31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 25, worth +4.46 EP
  • 69% chance to fail: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 33, worth -1.40 EP
KICK +0.96 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 72% chance to make a 50-yard field goal: 3 points, then Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 28% chance to miss: Buffalo Bills takes over around their own 43, worth -2.12 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Buffalo Bills would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model