Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Buffalo Bills 4th & 16 at the 83

Buffalo Bills 3 – New England Patriots 10

(1:16) 9-C.Bojorquez punts 43 yards to NE 40, Center-69-R.Ferguson. 14-M.Sanu Sr. to 50 for 10 yards (16-R.Foster).

The Three Options

GO -3.35 EP

28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 67, worth +0.56 EP
72% chance to fail: New England Patriots takes over around their own 83, worth -4.85 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (100 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model