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Tampa Bay Buccaneers

HC Bruce Arians
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Detroit Lions

HC Matt Patricia
Sunday 2019-12-15 · 13:00 Ford Field, Detroit US 🏟 Dome Spread -5.5 O/U 46.0

Win Probability

TB
52.8%
DET
47.2%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>coin flip</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • DET defense: +0.105 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (30th in the league)
  • David Blough (DET): -0.061 EPA/dropback in prior starts
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DET offense: +0.034 EPA/play over its last 8 games (12th in the league)
  • Jameis Winston (TB): +0.105 EPA/dropback in prior starts

Predicted Final Score

TB 25
–
DET 23
Projected margin: TB by 2 Projected total: 48

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 15

TB

Beau Allen DT Out Ankle
Mike Evans WR Out Hamstring
Anthony Nelson LB Out Hamstring
Donovan Smith T Doubtful Ankle
Devin White LB Questionable Illness
Alex Cappa G Questionable Elbow
Jameis Winston QB Questionable right Thumb

DET

Joe Dahl G Out Back
Jarrad Davis LB Out Ankle
A'Shawn Robinson DT Out Shoulder
Matthew Stafford QB Out Hip
Rick Wagner T Out Knee
John Atkins DT Questionable Illness
Bo Scarbrough RB Questionable Ribs
Christian Jones LB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 15 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

TB 38
–
DET 17

Prediction missed by 19 pts on margin, 7 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:30 TD TB (7:30) 3-J.Winston pass deep middle to 19-B.Perriman for 34 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 6 – DET 0
  • Q1 03:49 TD TB (3:49) 71-E.Watford reported in as eligible. 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 10-S.Miller for 33 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 13 – DET 0
  • Q2 08:19 TD TB (8:19) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass short right to 19-B.Perriman for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 20 – DET 0
  • Q2 03:21 FG DET (3:21) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin. TB 21 – DET 3
  • Q3 11:36 FG TB (11:36) 9-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion. TB 24 – DET 3
  • Q3 06:49 TD DET (6:49) 76-O.Aboushi reported in as eligible. 36-W.Hills left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 24 – DET 9
  • Q4 15:00 TD DET (15:00) 70-D.Skipper reported in as eligible. 36-W.Hills left tackle for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. TB 24 – DET 16
  • Q4 05:23 TD TB (5:23) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass short left intended for 80-D.Amendola INTERCEPTED by 26-S.Bunting at TB 30. 26-S.Bunting for 70 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 30 – DET 17
  • Q4 03:04 TD TB (3:04) (Shotgun) 3-J.Winston pass deep right to 19-B.Perriman for 25 yards, TOUCHDOWN. TB 37 – DET 17

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DET 4th & 13 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 28% p(FG) 40%

    (11:52) 6-S.Martin punts 31 yards to TB 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-J.Watson. PENALTY on DET, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at TB 16.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 6 at the 63
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (5:46) 6-S.Martin punts 62 yards to TB 1, Center-48-D.Muhlbach. 35-J.Dean MUFFS catch, ball out of bounds at TB 1.

  • Q1 DET 4th & 13 at the 78
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32%

    (1:45) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to TB 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-J.Watson.

  • Q2 TB 4th & 7 at the 44
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 47%

    (14:22) 8-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to DET 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 9 at the 86
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39%

    (12:47) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to TB 33, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-J.Watson.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 7 at the 26
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 85%

    (3:21) 5-M.Prater 44 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Holder-6-S.Martin.

  • Q2 DET 4th & 5 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (:39) 6-S.Martin punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 28
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 32% p(FG) 82%

    (11:36) 9-M.Gay 46 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q3 TB 4th & 9 at the 53
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 35% p(FG) 26%

    (3:01) 8-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to DET 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

  • Q4 TB 4th & 1 at the 55
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 71%

    (11:40) 3-J.Winston up the middle to TB 47 for 2 yards (51-J.Tavai).

  • Q4 TB 4th & 7 at the 36
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 37% p(FG) 67%

    (8:04) 9-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

  • Q4 DET 4th & 3 at the 54 late-game
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 53%

    (4:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass incomplete deep left to 19-K.Golladay [93-N.Suh].