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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 44

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14 – Detroit Lions 0

What Actually Happened

(14:22) 8-B.Pinion punts 31 yards to DET 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -0.30 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 37, worth +3.39 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 44, worth -2.56 EP
KICK -0.77 EP
  • 47% chance to make a 61-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.71 EP
  • 53% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.97 EP
PUNT -0.44 EP
What Happened
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 12, worth -0.44 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model