Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 78

Detroit Lions 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 14

(1:45) 6-S.Martin punts 53 yards to TB 25, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-J.Watson.

The Three Options

GO -2.27 EP

32% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.97 EP
68% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 78, worth -4.26 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (95 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model