4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Detroit Lions 4th & 3 at the 54

Detroit Lions 17 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 31

What Actually Happened

(4:11) (Shotgun) 10-D.Blough pass incomplete deep left to 19-K.Golladay [93-N.Suh].

The Three Options

GO -0.01 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 53% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +1.96 EP
  • 47% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 54, worth -2.21 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.31 EP
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 16, worth -0.31 EP

The Verdict

Chose GO ✓ matched the model