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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Detroit Lions 4th & 5 at the 59

Detroit Lions 3 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 21

What Actually Happened

(:39) 6-S.Martin punts 59 yards to end zone, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, Touchback.

The Three Options

GO -0.57 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +1.69 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 59, worth -2.40 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (76 yards).

PUNT -0.39 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 18, worth -0.39 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model