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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Detroit Lions 4th & 13 at the 47

Detroit Lions 0 – Tampa Bay Buccaneers 0

What Actually Happened

(11:52) 6-S.Martin punts 31 yards to TB 16, Center-48-D.Muhlbach, fair catch by 17-J.Watson. PENALTY on DET, Illegal Formation, 5 yards, enforced at TB 16.

The Three Options

GO -0.56 EP
  • 28% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 34, worth +3.99 EP
  • 72% chance to fail: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.38 EP
KICK -0.60 EP
  • 40% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.38 EP
  • 60% chance to miss: Tampa Bay Buccaneers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT +0.08 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers would take over around their own 13, worth +0.08 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model