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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 7 at the 36

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Detroit Lions 17

What Actually Happened

(8:04) 9-M.Gay 54 yard field goal is No Good, Hit Left Upright, Center-97-Z.Triner, Holder-8-B.Pinion.

The Three Options

GO +0.41 EP
Model's Pick
  • 37% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 29, worth +3.98 EP
  • 63% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 36, worth -1.69 EP
KICK +0.39 EP
What Happened
  • 67% chance to make a 53-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.72 EP
  • 33% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 46, worth -2.32 EP
PUNT -0.48 EP
  • Detroit Lions would take over around their own 11, worth -0.48 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model