Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Tampa Bay Buccaneers 4th & 9 at the 53

Tampa Bay Buccaneers 24 – Detroit Lions 10

(3:01) 8-B.Pinion punts 40 yards to DET 13, Center-97-Z.Triner, fair catch by 80-D.Amendola.

The Three Options

GO -1.08 EP

35% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.66 EP
65% chance to fail: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 53, worth -3.11 EP

KICK -1.77 EP

26% chance to make a 70-yard field goal: 3 points, then Detroit Lions takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.56 EP
74% chance to miss: Detroit Lions takes over around their own 49, worth -2.95 EP

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model