4TH&DATA
EN ES
← Home
WAS Away

Washington Commanders

HC Bill Callahan
@
GB Home

Green Bay Packers

HC Matt LaFleur
Sunday 2019-12-08 · 13:00 Lambeau Field, Green Bay US 🌨 Snow Spread 13.0 O/U 42.5

Win Probability

WAS
15.6%
GB
84.4%
🌨 Snow

Confidence: <strong>strong edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • WAS offense: -0.211 EPA/play over its last 8 games (32nd in the league)
  • QB edge to GB: Aaron Rodgers (GB) +0.156 vs Dwayne Haskins (WAS) -0.355 EPA/dropback
  • GB offense: +0.143 EPA/play over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • GB defense: +0.086 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (26th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

WAS 16
–
GB 28
Projected margin: GB by 12 Projected total: 44

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 14

WAS

Deshazor Everett S Out Shoulder
Trey Quinn WR Out Concussion
Paul Richardson WR Out Hamstring

GB

Billy Turner G Questionable Illness
Tony Brown CB Questionable Heel
Kevin King CB Questionable Shoulder

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 14 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

WAS 15
–
GB 20

Prediction missed by 7 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:10 TD GB (9:10) (Shotgun) 33-A.Jones up the middle for 4 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – GB 6
  • Q1 00:39 TD GB (:39) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short middle to 85-R.Tonyan for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 0 – GB 13
  • Q2 03:48 TD WAS (3:48) 26-A.Peterson right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 6 – GB 14
  • Q3 10:11 FG GB (10:11) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. WAS 6 – GB 17
  • Q3 00:16 FG WAS (:16) 3-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way. WAS 9 – GB 17
  • Q4 02:38 FG GB (2:38) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott. WAS 9 – GB 20
  • Q4 01:22 TD WAS (1:22) (Shotgun) 7-D.Haskins pass short middle to 17-T.McLaurin for 13 yards, TOUCHDOWN. WAS 15 – GB 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 20 at the 85
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (12:59) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to GB 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 32-T.Ervin to 50 for 10 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 5 at the 87
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45%

    (7:39) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to GB 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 32-T.Ervin to WAS 48 for 12 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

  • Q1 GB 4th & 11 at the 49
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33% p(FG) 27%

    (5:25) 6-J.Scott punts 37 yards to WAS 12, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.

  • Q1 WAS 4th & 1 at the 79
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP
    p(convert) 70%

    (3:51) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to GB 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 32-T.Ervin to GB 43 for 18 yards (38-S.Thomas).

  • Q2 WAS 4th & 12 at the 47
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 27% p(FG) 31%

    (11:30) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to GB 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 9 at the 45
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.44 EP
    p(convert) 36% p(FG) 36%

    (9:37) 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to WAS 5, Center-43-H.Bradley, fair catch by 15-S.Sims.

  • Q2 GB 4th & 5 at the 36
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 44% p(FG) 60%

    (1:05) (Shotgun) 12-A.Rodgers pass short left to 17-D.Adams ran ob at WAS 27 for 9 yards (20-L.Collins).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 1 at the 28
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 69% p(FG) 78%

    (12:30) 30-J.Williams left guard to WAS 21 for 7 yards (55-C.Holcomb; 54-N.Orchard).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 4 at the 15
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 94%

    (10:11) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 19 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25%

    (8:09) 5-T.Way punts 44 yards to GB 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 32-T.Ervin to WAS 49 for 11 yards (39-J.Reaves).

  • Q3 GB 4th & 5 at the 44
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.38 EP
    p(convert) 45% p(FG) 39%

    (6:52) 6-J.Scott punts 44 yards to end zone, Center-43-H.Bradley, Touchback.

  • Q3 WAS 4th & 8 at the 34
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 65%

    (:16) 3-D.Hopkins 52 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-N.Sundberg, Holder-5-T.Way.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 9 at the 64
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (13:30) 6-J.Scott punts 40 yards to WAS 24, Center-43-H.Bradley. 15-S.Sims to WAS 30 for 6 yards (35-I.Campbell; 25-W.Redmond).

  • Q4 WAS 4th & 6 at the 50
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38% p(FG) 25%

    (10:05) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to GB 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

  • Q4 GB 4th & 1 at the 15 late-game
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.41 EP
    p(convert) 68% p(FG) 94%

    (2:38) 2-M.Crosby 33 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.