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Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades.
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Q1
Green Bay Packers
4th & 11 at the 49
Green Bay Packers 7 – Washington Commanders 0
What Actually Happened
(5:25) 6-J.Scott punts 37 yards to WAS 12, Center-43-H.Bradley, out of bounds.
The Three Options
GO
-0.53 EP
-
33% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 38, worth +3.49 EP
- 67% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.52 EP
KICK
-1.29 EP
- 27% chance to make a 66-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
- 73% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 49, worth -2.54 EP
PUNT
-0.19 EP
What Happened
Model's Pick
- Washington Commanders would take over around their own 14, worth -0.19 EP
The Verdict
Chose PUNT
✓ matched the model
