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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q3 Green Bay Packers 4th & 4 at the 15

Green Bay Packers 14 – Washington Commanders 6

What Actually Happened

(10:11) 2-M.Crosby 32 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-43-H.Bradley, Holder-6-J.Scott.

The Three Options

GO +2.16 EP
Model's Pick
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 11, worth +5.19 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 15, worth -0.32 EP
KICK +1.95 EP
What Happened
  • 94% chance to make a 32-yard field goal: 3 points, then Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.14 EP
  • 6% chance to miss: Washington Commanders takes over around their own 25, worth -0.86 EP
PUNT +0.07 EP
  • Washington Commanders would take over around their own 11, worth +0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model