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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Washington Commanders 4th & 6 at the 50

Washington Commanders 9 – Green Bay Packers 17

What Actually Happened

(10:05) 5-T.Way punts 39 yards to GB 11, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -0.58 EP
Model's Pick
  • 38% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 44, worth +2.87 EP
  • 62% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 50, worth -2.67 EP
KICK -1.58 EP
  • 25% chance to make a 67-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 75% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.67 EP
PUNT -0.70 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 14, worth -0.70 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model