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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 5 at the 87

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(7:39) 5-T.Way punts 47 yards to GB 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 32-T.Ervin to WAS 48 for 12 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

The Three Options

GO -2.72 EP
  • 45% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 82, worth +0.42 EP
  • 55% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 87, worth -5.33 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (104 yards).

PUNT -2.40 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 45, worth -2.40 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model