Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 20 at the 85

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 0

(12:59) 5-T.Way punts 45 yards to GB 40, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 32-T.Ervin to 50 for 10 yards (55-C.Holcomb).

The Three Options

GO -3.65 EP

24% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 65, worth +1.34 EP
76% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 85, worth -5.25 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (102 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model