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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Washington Commanders 4th & 1 at the 79

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 7

What Actually Happened

(3:51) 5-T.Way punts 54 yards to GB 25, Center-57-N.Sundberg. 32-T.Ervin to GB 43 for 18 yards (38-S.Thomas).

The Three Options

GO -0.81 EP
Model's Pick
  • 70% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 78, worth +0.80 EP
  • 30% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 79, worth -4.63 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (96 yards).

PUNT -1.97 EP
What Happened
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 36, worth -1.97 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +1.16 EP