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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Washington Commanders 4th & 12 at the 47

Washington Commanders 0 – Green Bay Packers 14

What Actually Happened

(11:30) 5-T.Way punts 35 yards to GB 12, Center-57-N.Sundberg, fair catch by 32-T.Ervin.

The Three Options

GO -1.01 EP
  • 27% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 35, worth +3.56 EP
  • 73% chance to fail: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.71 EP
KICK -1.40 EP
  • 31% chance to make a 64-yard field goal: 3 points, then Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.77 EP
  • 69% chance to miss: Green Bay Packers takes over around their own 49, worth -2.83 EP
PUNT -0.37 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Green Bay Packers would take over around their own 13, worth -0.37 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model