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Cleveland Browns

HC Freddie Kitchens
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Pittsburgh Steelers

HC Mike Tomlin
Sunday 2019-12-01 · 13:00 Heinz Field, Pittsburgh US 🌧 Rain Spread -1.0 O/U 40.0

Win Probability

CLE
34.7%
PIT
65.3%
🌧 Rain

Confidence: <strong>clear edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • PIT defense: -0.209 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (3rd in the league)
  • PIT offense: -0.111 EPA/play over its last 8 games (25th in the league)
  • CLE offense: -0.065 EPA/play over its last 8 games (20th in the league)
  • QB edge to PIT: Devlin Hodges (PIT) +0.097 vs Baker Mayfield (CLE) -0.014 EPA/dropback (PIT starting Devlin Hodges in place of Mason Rudolph)

Predicted Final Score

CLE 19
–
PIT 23
Projected margin: PIT by 4 Projected total: 42

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 13

CLE

Eric Murray S Out Knee
Greg Robinson T Questionable Concussion
KhaDarel Hodge WR Questionable Achilles
Olivier Vernon DE Questionable Knee

PIT

JuJu Smith-Schuster WR Out Knee
James Conner RB Doubtful Shoulder
Artie Burns CB Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 13 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

CLE 13
–
PIT 20

Prediction missed by 3 pts on margin, 9 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 07:34 FG CLE (7:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 3 – PIT 0
  • Q2 07:46 TD CLE (7:46) (Shotgun) 6-B.Mayfield pass short middle to 27-K.Hunt for 15 yards, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 9 – PIT 0
  • Q2 03:00 FG PIT (3:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CLE 10 – PIT 3
  • Q2 01:06 TD PIT (1:06) (Shotgun) 6-D.Hodges pass deep right to 13-J.Washington for 30 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on CLE-38-T.Carrie, Defensive Pass Interference, declined. CLE 10 – PIT 9
  • Q3 10:42 TD PIT (10:42) 72-Z.Banner reported in as eligible. 24-B.Snell Jr. left guard for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. CLE 10 – PIT 16
  • Q4 13:51 FG PIT (13:51) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry. CLE 10 – PIT 20
  • Q4 07:34 FG CLE (7:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan. CLE 13 – PIT 20

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 12 at the 13
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 95%

    (7:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q1 PIT 4th & 19 at the 68
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 24%

    (5:17) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CLE 26, Center-57-K.Canaday, fair catch by 25-D.Hilliard.

  • Q1 CLE 4th & 6 at the 59
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 38%

    (1:07) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 45 yards to PIT 14, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 15 for 1 yard (49-J.Hassell; 20-T.Thomas).

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 8 at the 72
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (13:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CLE 30, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

  • Q2 PIT 4th & 9 at the 21
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 29% p(FG) 89%

    (3:00) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 39 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 6 at the 76
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 40%

    (2:00) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to PIT 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 31 for 13 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

  • Q2 CLE 4th & 10 at the 64
    Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.17 EP
    p(convert) 31%

    (:02) (Shotgun) 3-G.Gilbert pass incomplete deep right.

  • Q3 CLE 4th & 1 at the 40
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 65% p(FG) 53%

    (6:08) (Run formation) 24-N.Chubb up the middle to PIT 38 for 2 yards (48-B.Dupree, 34-Te.Edmunds).

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 11 at the 11
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 25% p(FG) 96%

    (13:51) (Field Goal formation) 9-C.Boswell 29 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-57-K.Canaday, Holder-4-J.Berry.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 8 at the 80
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 36%

    (12:17) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to PIT 39, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 3 at the 54
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP
    p(convert) 50%

    (10:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to CLE 18, Center-57-K.Canaday. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 23 for 5 yards (56-A.Chickillo).

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 12 at the 16
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 23% p(FG) 94%

    (7:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 34 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

  • Q4 CLE 4th & 18 at the 38
    Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP
    p(convert) 21% p(FG) 58%

    (5:46) (Punt formation) 4-A.Seibert punts 37 yards to PIT 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-89-S.Carlson. Pittsburgh challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:35.)

  • Q4 PIT 4th & 6 at the 53 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 22%

    (1:52) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 53 yards to end zone, Center-57-K.Canaday, Touchback.