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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 3 at the 54

Pittsburgh Steelers 20 – Cleveland Browns 10

What Actually Happened

(10:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 36 yards to CLE 18, Center-57-K.Canaday. 25-D.Hilliard to CLE 23 for 5 yards (56-A.Chickillo).

The Three Options

GO -0.06 EP
Model's Pick
  • 50% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 51, worth +2.74 EP
  • 50% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 54, worth -2.89 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (71 yards).

PUNT -0.83 EP
What Happened
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 16, worth -0.83 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.78 EP