4TH&DATA
EN ES
Back to Game

Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q1 Cleveland Browns 4th & 12 at the 13

Cleveland Browns 0 – Pittsburgh Steelers 0

What Actually Happened

(7:34) (Field Goal formation) 4-A.Seibert 31 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-47-C.Hughlett, Holder-7-J.Gillan.

The Three Options

GO +1.10 EP
  • 23% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 1, worth +6.45 EP
  • 77% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 13, worth -0.51 EP
KICK +1.52 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • 95% chance to make a 30-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +1.65 EP
  • 5% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 23, worth -1.16 EP
PUNT -0.34 EP
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.34 EP

The Verdict

Chose KICK ✓ matched the model