Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 6 at the 76

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 3

(2:00) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 58 yards to PIT 18, Center-47-C.Hughlett. 18-D.Johnson to PIT 31 for 13 yards (47-C.Hughlett).

The Three Options

GO -2.18 EP

40% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 70, worth +1.11 EP
60% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 76, worth -4.38 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (93 yards).

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model