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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 18 at the 38

Cleveland Browns 13 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(5:46) (Punt formation) 4-A.Seibert punts 37 yards to PIT 1, Center-47-C.Hughlett, downed by CLE-89-S.Carlson. Pittsburgh challenged the kick downed ruling, and the play was Upheld. The ruling on the field stands. (Timeout #1 at 05:35.)

The Three Options

GO -0.37 EP
  • 21% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 20, worth +4.32 EP
  • 79% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 38, worth -1.60 EP
KICK +0.31 EP
Model's Pick
  • 58% chance to make a 55-yard field goal: 3 points, then Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 25 after the kickoff, worth +2.16 EP
  • 42% chance to miss: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 47, worth -2.22 EP
PUNT -0.07 EP
What Happened
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 11, worth -0.07 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT Model wanted KICK instead — cost +0.39 EP