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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Pittsburgh Steelers 4th & 8 at the 72

Pittsburgh Steelers 0 – Cleveland Browns 3

What Actually Happened

(13:29) (Punt formation) 4-J.Berry punts 42 yards to CLE 30, Center-57-K.Canaday, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -1.79 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 64, worth +2.18 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Cleveland Browns takes over around their own 72, worth -4.06 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (89 yards).

PUNT -1.13 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Cleveland Browns would take over around their own 30, worth -1.13 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model