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Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q4 Cleveland Browns 4th & 8 at the 80

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 20

What Actually Happened

(12:17) (Punt formation) 7-J.Gillan punts 41 yards to PIT 39, Center-47-C.Hughlett, out of bounds.

The Three Options

GO -2.54 EP
  • 36% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 72, worth +1.00 EP
  • 64% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 80, worth -4.54 EP
KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (97 yards).

PUNT -2.03 EP
What Happened Model's Pick
  • Pittsburgh Steelers would take over around their own 37, worth -2.03 EP

The Verdict

Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model