Decision Replay

Every real option on this 4th down, priced in expected points, the same math behind every call this site grades. ?

Q2 Cleveland Browns 4th & 10 at the 64

Cleveland Browns 10 – Pittsburgh Steelers 10

(:02) (Shotgun) 3-G.Gilbert pass incomplete deep right.

The Three Options

GO -1.18 EP

What Happened

31% chance to convert: a fresh set of downs at the 54, worth +0.24 EP
69% chance to fail: Pittsburgh Steelers takes over around their own 64, worth -1.81 EP

KICK

Too far to price a realistic field-goal try from here (81 yards).

Chose GO Model wanted PUNT instead — cost +1.17 EP