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Minnesota Vikings

HC Mike Zimmer
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Dallas Cowboys

HC Jason Garrett
Sunday 2019-11-10 · 20:20 AT&T Stadium, Arlington US 🏟 Dome Spread 3.5 O/U 48.5

Win Probability

MIN
42.0%
DAL
58.0%
🏟 Dome

Confidence: <strong>slight edge</strong> Bands are honesty-checked against held-out seasons, not a feeling about this game — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Key Insights

  • MIN offense: +0.121 EPA/play over its last 8 games (5th in the league)
  • DAL offense: +0.150 EPA/play over its last 8 games (2nd in the league)
  • QB edge to DAL: Dak Prescott (DAL) +0.262 vs Kirk Cousins (MIN) +0.174 EPA/dropback
  • Indoors — weather neutralised
  • DAL defense: -0.036 EPA/play allowed over its last 8 games (12th in the league)

Predicted Final Score

MIN 24
–
DAL 26
Projected margin: DAL by 2 Projected total: 50

Typical error on unseen games: ±10.2 pts on margin, ±10.7 pts on total (held-out 2025). Treat this as a range, not a prediction to the point — see the <a href="/track-record">full track record</a>.

Injury Report — Week 10

MIN

Linval Joseph DT Out Knee
Andrew Sendejo S Out Groin
Adam Thielen WR Out Hamstring
Trae Waynes CB Questionable Ankle
Stephen Weatherly DE Questionable Groin

DAL

Cameron Fleming T Out Calf
Amari Cooper WR Questionable Knee

Pulled fresh for 2019 week 10 specifically, not a cached snapshot — this changes every week as new reports come in.

Actual Result

MIN 28
–
DAL 24

Prediction missed by 6 pts on margin, 2 pts on total.

Scoring Summary

  • Q1 09:33 TD MIN (9:33) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 6 – DAL 0
  • Q1 00:37 TD MIN (:37) 8-K.Cousins pass short left to 82-K.Rudolph for 1 yard, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 13 – DAL 0
  • Q2 08:15 TD DAL (8:15) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short left to 13-M.Gallup for 23 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 14 – DAL 6
  • Q2 02:00 TD DAL (2:00) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right to 18-R.Cobb for 22 yards, TOUCHDOWN. Penalty on MIN-91-S.Weatherly, Defensive Offside, declined. MIN 14 – DAL 13
  • Q2 00:02 FG MIN (:02) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 26 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 17 – DAL 14
  • Q3 09:41 FG MIN (9:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt. MIN 20 – DAL 14
  • Q3 07:08 TD DAL (7:08) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass short right to 19-A.Cooper for 12 yards, TOUCHDOWN. MIN 20 – DAL 20
  • Q3 00:06 TD MIN (:06) 33-D.Cook right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL-99-A.Woods was injured during the play. His return is Questionable. MIN 26 – DAL 21
  • Q4 10:03 FG DAL (10:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones. MIN 28 – DAL 24

Fourth-Down Decisions

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 39
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.30 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 60%

    (12:08) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 57 yard field goal is No Good, Wide Left, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q1 DAL 4th & 6 at the 48
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42% p(FG) 37%

    (6:58) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 38 yards to MIN 10, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, fair catch by 21-M.Hughes.

  • Q2 DAL 4th & 4 at the 40
    Chose PUNT Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.56 EP
    p(convert) 48% p(FG) 57%

    (13:39) (Punt formation) 6-C.Jones punts 34 yards to MIN 6, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, downed by DAL-29-C.Goodwin.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 14 at the 84
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 33%

    (10:51) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 32 yards to MIN 48, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse. Dallas's Jeff Heath has a shoulder injury, his return is questionable.

  • Q2 MIN 4th & 7 at the 70
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 42%

    (6:45) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 53 yards to DAL 17, Center-58-A.Cutting. 10-T.Austin to DAL 17 for no gain (23-M.Boone).

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 9 at the 9
    Chose KICK ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 31% p(FG) 97%

    (9:41) (Field Goal formation) 5-D.Bailey 27 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-58-A.Cutting, Holder-2-B.Colquitt.

  • Q3 MIN 4th & 2 at the 2
    Chose GO ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 54% p(FG) 98%

    (:06) 33-D.Cook right end for 2 yards, TOUCHDOWN. DAL-99-A.Woods was injured during the play. His return is Questionable.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 5
    Chose KICK Model wanted GO instead — cost +0.47 EP
    p(convert) 40% p(FG) 98%

    (10:03) (Field Goal formation) 2-B.Maher 23 yard field goal is GOOD, Center-91-L.Ladouceur, Holder-6-C.Jones.

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 7 at the 47 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 39% p(FG) 40%

    (4:43) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 41 yards to DAL 6, Center-58-A.Cutting, downed by MIN-27-J.Kearse.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 5 at the 14 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.01 EP
    p(convert) 41% p(FG) 95%

    (:44) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass incomplete short left to 21-E.Elliott (54-E.Kendricks).

  • Q4 MIN 4th & 14 at the 90 late-game
    Chose PUNT ✓ matched the model
    p(convert) 34%

    (:24) (Punt formation) 2-B.Colquitt punts 44 yards to DAL 46, Center-58-A.Cutting, fair catch by 10-T.Austin.

  • Q4 DAL 4th & 1 at the 45 late-game
    Chose GO Model wanted KICK instead — cost +1.00 EP
    p(convert) 71% p(FG) 44%

    (:03) (Shotgun) 4-D.Prescott pass deep right INTERCEPTED by 27-J.Kearse at MIN -4. Touchback.